NOACY Futures: PTA Follows Crude Oil Cost Fluctuations

NOACY Futures: PTA Follows Crude Oil Cost Fluctuations

April 15, 2025 08:49

Trump has implemented a 90-day tariff deferral, and OPEC has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and consolidate. In terms of PX supply, domestic paraxylene (PX) production for the week was 660,000 tons, down 0.588% from the previous week. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 78.7%, down 0.46% from the previous week. On the demand side, the PTA operating rate was 77.99%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,404,900 tons, up 12,700 tons from the previous week and down 123,000 tons from the same period last year. PX facilities continued maintenance, leading to a further decline in PX supply. The PTA facility operating rate remained relatively stable, and the fundamental pressure on PX was not significant. The PX2505 contract closed slightly lower overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the raw material side in the short term, with support focused on the 5,900 level.

PTA Trump has implemented a 90-day tariff deferral, and OPEC has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and consolidate. The PTA processing margin has expanded to 22. In terms of supply, the PTA operating rate for the week was 77.99%, down 2.49% from the previous week. Weekly PTA production was 1,362,000 tons, down 43,200 tons from the previous week and up 147,900 tons from the same period last year. On the demand side, the weekly output of China's polyester industry was 1,552,400 tons, up 6,300 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 91.31%, down 0.21% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory for the week was 4.32 days, up 0.03 days from the previous week and down 0.44 days from the same period last year. The PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 10.25 days, up 1.2 days from the previous week and up 2.78 days from the same period last year. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly in the short term, with downstream demand-driven restocking. Crude oil is expected to provide some short-term support to polyester, and PTA supply and demand are expected to remain stable in the short term. The PTA2505 contract closed slightly lower overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side in the short term, with support focused on the 4,250 level.

Ethylene Glycol Trump has implemented a 90-day tariff deferral, and OPEC has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and consolidate. In terms of supply, domestic ethylene glycol facility weekly output was 375,000 tons, down 5.51% from the previous week. The overall domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate for the week was 62.37%, down 3.63% from the previous week. On the demand side, the weekly output of China's polyester industry was 1,552,400 tons, up 6,300 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 91.31%, down 0.21% from the previous week. As of April 10, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 686,900 tons, down 13,500 tons from Monday and down 10,900 tons from the previous Thursday. Main port shipments were good and arrivals were average this week, leading to an overall reduction in inventory. Next week, the estimated total arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is expected to be 123,800 tons, down 38,800 tons from the previous week. The supply and demand pressure for ethylene glycol is not significant. The EG2505 contract closed lower overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the crude oil side in the short term, with support focused on the 4,200 level.

Short Fiber Trump has implemented a 90-day tariff deferral, and OPEC has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and consolidate. Currently, the short fiber sales rate is 91.08%, down 13.8% from the previous period. In terms of supply, the weekly output of polyester short fiber was 155,500 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous week, with a decrease of 1.64%. The average capacity utilization rate was 82.84%, down 1.66% from the previous week. Within the week, the output of some cotton-type facilities declined. On the demand side, the average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry was 78.80%, down 3.32% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, as of April 10, the rights inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China was 9.69 days, down 0.43 days from the previous period, while the physical inventory was 18.66 days, up 0.21 days from the previous period. In the short term, tariffs have affected inventory accumulation and led to a slight decline in facility operating rates. Prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil in the short term. The short fiber main contract 2506 closed lower overnight, with support focused on the 6,000 level.

Trump has implemented a 90-day tariff deferral, and OPEC has lowered its global crude oil demand forecast, causing international crude oil prices to fluctuate and consolidate. In terms of supply, domestic polyester bottle chip production was 320,700 tons, up 7,200 tons from the previous week, with an increase of 2.30%. The polyester bottle chip operating rate was 75.38%, up 2.71% from the previous week. The weekly output of China's polyester industry was 1,552,400 tons, up 6,300 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 91.31%, down 0.21% from the previous week. In terms of exports, in February 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 487,600 tons, up 66,000 tons from the previous month, or 15.66%. Some facilities have restarted after maintenance, leading to an increase in the bottle chip operating rate. Currently, overall supply and demand pressure has increased slightly, but the production margin is -160.4, and the profit loss provides some support for prices. In the short term, the overall situation is expected to follow the fluctuations of the crude oil side. The bottle chip 2506 contract closed lower overnight, with support focused on the 5,500 level.

(Source: NOACY Futures)