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NOACY Futures: Supply and Demand Outlook Improves, PTA Rises Amid Fluctuations
2025.04.04
NOACY Futures: Supply and Demand Outlook Improves, PTA Rises Amid Fluctuations
April 4, 2025 08:48
PX fell slightly overnight. Currently, the PXN spread is around $210 per ton. On the supply side, weekly PX production was 75.03 million tons, down 2.13% week-on-week. Domestic PX average capacity utilization rate was 89.46%, down 1.95% from last week. On the demand side, the current PTA operating rate is 80.48%, with weekly PTA production at 140.17 million tons, up 6.28 million tons from last week but down 2.37 million tons from the same period last year. Domestic PTA average capacity utilization rate reached 80.28%, up 3.42% week-on-week and up 3.36% year-on-year. Regarding PX facilities, Jiujiang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Dalian facilities continued maintenance during the week, and Huizhou Refining started maintenance, with expected further decline in PX supply. Recently, some PTA facilities restarted, improving PX supply and demand. The US tariff policy was introduced, and crude oil prices plunged at the end of the trading session, with PX expected to follow the cost side and remain weak.
PTA rose amid fluctuations overnight. Currently, the PTA processing margin is around 253 yuan per ton. On the supply side, the current PTA operating rate is 80.48%, with weekly PTA production at 140.17 million tons, up 6.28 million tons from last week but down 2.37 million tons from the same period last year. Domestic PTA average capacity utilization rate reached 80.28%, up 3.42% week-on-week and up 3.36% year-on-year. On the demand side, the current polyester operating rate is 90.89%. The weekly output of the polyester industry is 153.85 million tons, up 1.37 million tons from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 91.07%, up 0.81% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, this week's PTA factory inventory is 4.54 days, down 0.3 days from last week and down 0.78 days from the same period last year. The PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories is 9.75 days, up 0.7 days from last week and up 2.75 days from the same period last year. Recently, Yizheng Fiber increased to full capacity, and Hailun Petrochemical restarted. Hengli and Huilian are planning maintenance. Downstream polyester demand has recovered, with PTA supply and demand outlook improving and cost support weakening.
Ethylene glycol rose amid fluctuations overnight. On the supply side, the weekly output of ethylene glycol facilities is 39.5 million tons, down 1.51% from last week. This week, the total domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 65.69%, down 1% week-on-week. On the demand side, the current polyester operating rate is 90.89%. The weekly output of the polyester industry is 153.85 million tons, up 1.37 million tons from last week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 91.07%, up 0.81% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, as of March 31, the total port inventory of MEG in the main ports of East China was 67.19 million tons, down 0.81 million tons from last Thursday. As of April 2, 2025, the estimated total arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is 17.07 million tons, up 3.96 million tons from last week's plan. Recently, the arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, with upward pressure on port inventory. Some ethylene glycol facilities are scheduled for maintenance, and downstream demand continues to recover. The domestic ethylene glycol supply and demand outlook is improving. Attention should be paid to the recovery of demand.
Short fiber fell slightly amid fluctuations overnight. Currently, the sales rate of short fiber is 92.10%, down 7.90% from the previous trading day. On the supply side, weekly output of polyester short fiber is 16 million tons, up 0.19 million tons week-on-week, with an increase of 1.20%. The average capacity utilization rate is 85.40%, up 2.95% week-on-week. During the week, production increased at Yizheng, Jiangnan High Fiber, and Huaxicun. On the demand side, the average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry remained unchanged at 82.12% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, as of March 27, the rights inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China was 10.08 days, down 0.93 days from the previous period. The average raw material inventory for pure polyester yarn was 10.15 days, down 0.05 days week-on-week. A major polyester short fiber manufacturer plans to reduce production by 10% for one month. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and cost conditions. The short fiber processing fee may be supported by the production cut, with short fiber prices expected to follow the cost side and remain weak amid fluctuations.
(Source: NOACY Futures)
