NOACY Futures: With the Start of the Blending Season, PTA Supply and Demand Outlook Improves

February 21, 2025, 08:49

PX:Over,night PX prices were volatile but slightly stronger. Currently, the PXN spread is around $221 per ton. In terms of supply, the weekly PX production was 758,500 tons, unchanged from last week. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 90.44%, unchanged from last week. Multiple units have delayed their maintenance plans. In terms of demand, the current PTA operating rate is 79.02%. The weekly PTA production was 1,377,800 tons, down by 55,200 tons from last week and up by 27,600 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.14%, down by 3.19% week-on-week and down by 3.94% year-on-year. The PX-naphtha price spread is at a low level. Post-holiday PX supply remains stable. Recently, some PTA units have maintenance plans, and the PX supply and demand outlook is expected to weaken. Crude oil is consolidating, waiting for direction. It is expected that PX will follow the cost side.

PTA:Overnight, PTA prices were volatile but slightly stronger. Currently, the PTA processing margin is around 261 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, the current PTA operating rate is 79.02%. The weekly PTA production was 1,377,800 tons, down by 55,200 tons from last week and up by 27,600 tons compared to the same period last year. The domestic PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate was 79.14%, down by 3.19% week-on-week and down by 3.94% year-on-year. This week, Yisheng Hainan and Hengli Huizhou were shut down. In terms of demand, the current polyester operating rate is 86.82%. Next week, Hengli Huizhou is expected to restart, and PTA supply is expected to rise slightly. Downstream polyester demand has recovered, and the PTA processing margin is expected to improve. With the start of the blending season, the PTA supply and demand outlook is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the support at 4,600-4,800 yuan for the PTA main contract and the resistance at 5,300-5,500 yuan.

Ethylene Glycol:Overnight, ethylene glycol prices were volatile but slightly weaker. In terms of supply, the weekly production of ethylene glycol units was 402,400 tons, down by 4.06% from last week. The domestic total capacity utilization rate of ethylene glycol was 66.93%, down by 2.83% week-on-week. This week, Wonen and Gulei were under maintenance, while Guanghui and Tianye reduced their loads, and Shaanxi Coal increased its load. In terms of demand, the current polyester operating rate is 86.86%. In terms of inventory, as of February 20, the total inventory of MEG ports in East China was 725,600 tons, up by 18,600 tons. As of February 26, 2025, the domestic ethylene glycol East China total arrival volume is expected to be 129,900 tons, down by 15,100 tons from last week's plan. Downstream demand has recovered after the holiday, and the port inventory pressure of ethylene glycol is expected to ease. Next week, Fude and Wonen units are expected to restart, and the domestic ethylene glycol supply is expected to rise. The overall supply and demand outlook for ethylene glycol is expected to improve. The cost side is running weakly, and ethylene glycol is expected to consolidate.

Short Fiber:Overnight, short fiber prices were volatile but slightly weaker. Currently, the short fiber sales rate is 67.54%, down by 4.71% from the previous trading day. In terms of supply, the weekly production of polyester short fiber was 142,800 tons, down by 2,900 tons, a decrease of 1.99%. The average capacity utilization rate was 74.32%, down by 1.51% week-on-week. This week, Xinjiang Zhongtai and Yuanfang restarted, Yihua reduced production, and Xianglu continued to be shut down. In terms of demand, the average sales rate of polyester short fiber factories was 69.71%, up by 14.12% from the previous period. The average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry was 67.4%, up by 17.4% week-on-week. In terms of inventory, as of February 20, the inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China was 14.15 days, down by 0.07 days from the previous period. The average raw material reserve for pure polyester yarn was 10 days, down by 0.15 days from the previous period. Next week, Huaxing and Zhuocheng, among other companies, are expected to restart, and the short fiber supply is expected to rise. Downstream operations have increased, but inventory preparation remains cautious. The short fiber processing fee is being squeezed, and short fiber prices are expected to remain weak and volatile.

(Sourced from NOACY Futures)