NOACY Futures: PTA Follows Crude Oil Cost Fluctuations

NOACY Futures: PTA Follows Crude Oil Cost Fluctuations

April 11, 2025 08:44

Tariffs and trade issues have triggered market uncertainties, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has lowered its crude oil demand forecast, causing international oil prices to weaken overnight. In terms of supply, domestic paraxylene (PX) production for the week was 660,000 tons, down 0.588% from the previous week. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 78.7%, down 0.46% from the previous week. On the demand side, the PTA operating rate was 77.99%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,404,900 tons, up 12,700 tons from the previous week and down 123,000 tons from the same period last year. PX facilities continued maintenance, leading to a further decline in PX supply. The PTA facility operating rate remained relatively stable, and the supply and demand situation for PX improved. The PX2505 contract closed slightly higher overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the raw material side in the short term, with support focused on the 5,750 level.

PTA Tariffs and trade issues have triggered market uncertainties, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has lowered its crude oil demand forecast, causing international oil prices to weaken overnight. The current PTA processing margin, calculated based on PX prices, is around 326.99 yuan per ton, with a spot basis of -120. In terms of supply, the PTA operating rate for the week was 77.99%, down 2.49% from the previous week. Weekly PTA production was 1,362,000 tons, down 43,200 tons from the previous week and up 147,900 tons from the same period last year. On the demand side, the weekly output of China's polyester industry was 1,552,400 tons, up 6,300 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 91.31%, down 0.21% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory for the week was 4.32 days, up 0.03 days from the previous week and down 0.44 days from the same period last year. The PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 10.25 days, up 1.2 days from the previous week and up 2.78 days from the same period last year. Prices are expected to fluctuate significantly in the short term, with downstream demand-driven restocking. The PTA2505 contract closed slightly higher overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side in the short term, with support focused on the 4,200 level.

Ethylene Glycol Tariffs and trade issues have triggered market uncertainties, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has lowered its crude oil demand forecast, causing international oil prices to weaken overnight. In terms of supply, domestic ethylene glycol facility weekly output was 396,900 tons, up 0.48% from the previous week. The overall domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate for the week was 62.37%, down 3.63% from the previous week. On the demand side, the weekly output of China's polyester industry was 1,552,400 tons, up 6,300 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.41%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 91.31%, down 0.21% from the previous week. As of April 10, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area was 686,900 tons, down 13,500 tons from Monday and down 10,900 tons from the previous Thursday. Main port shipments were good and arrivals were average this week, leading to an overall reduction in inventory. Next week, the estimated total arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China is expected to be 123,800 tons, down 38,800 tons from the previous week. The supply and demand pressure for ethylene glycol is not significant. The EG2505 contract closed slightly higher overnight and is expected to follow the fluctuations of the crude oil side in the short term, with support focused on the 4,200 level.

Short Fiber Tariffs and trade issues have triggered market uncertainties, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration has lowered its crude oil demand forecast, causing international oil prices to weaken overnight. Currently, the short fiber sales rate is 90.56%, down 1.17% from the previous period. In terms of supply, the weekly output of polyester short fiber was 155,500 tons, down 2,600 tons from the previous week, with a decrease of 1.64%. The average capacity utilization rate was 82.84%, down 1.66% from the previous week. Within the week, the output of some cotton-type facilities declined. On the demand side, the average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry was 78.80%, down 3.32% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, as of April 10, the rights inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China was 9.69 days, down 0.43 days from the previous period, while the physical inventory was 18.66 days, up 0.21 days from the previous period. In the short term, tariffs have affected inventory accumulation and led to a slight decline in facility operating rates. Prices are expected to follow the fluctuations of crude oil in the short term. The short fiber main contract closed slightly higher overnight, with support focused on the 6,000 level.

(Source: NOACY Futures)