OACY Futures: PTA Supply and Demand Outlook Improves, Boosted by Crude Oil Rebound

NOACY Futures: PTA Supply and Demand Outlook Improves, Boosted by Crude Oil Rebound

April 10, 2025 08:53

The United States announced a 90-day deferral of additional tariffs on some countries that do not take retaliatory actions, which has eased market concerns and led to a rebound in international crude oil prices. This, in turn, has provided some support to the cost of polyester. Currently, the PXN spread is at $182.75 per ton. In terms of supply, domestic PX production for the week was 663,900 tons, down 8% from the previous week. The average domestic PX capacity utilization rate was 79.16%, down 6.88% from the previous week. On the demand side, the PTA operating rate was 77.57%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,404,900 tons, up 12,700 tons from the previous week and down 123,000 tons from the same period last year. Looking at the PX facilities, the Jiujiang facility, Zhejiang Petrochemical, and Dalian facility continue to be under maintenance, and Huizhou Refining has started maintenance, which is expected to lead to a further decline in PX supply. Recently, some PTA facilities have restarted, and the supply and demand situation for PX is improving. It is anticipated that the main contract price of PX futures will follow the rebound of crude oil within the day.

PTA The United States announced a 90-day deferral of additional tariffs on some countries that do not take retaliatory actions, which has eased market concerns and led to a rebound in international crude oil prices. This, in turn, has provided some support to the cost of polyester. The current PTA processing margin, calculated based on PX prices, is around 439.26 yuan per ton, while the processing margin calculated from the original end is -160. It is expected that there will be some room for compression in the short term, with a spot basis of 245. In terms of supply, the PTA operating rate is currently 77.57%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,404,900 tons, up 12,700 tons from the previous week and down 123,000 tons from the same period last year. On the demand side, the polyester operating rate is currently 91.76%. The weekly output of the polyester industry is 1,546,100 tons, up 7,600 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.49%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 91.76%, up 0.45% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, PTA factory inventory for the week is 4.29 days, down 0.25 days from the previous week and down 0.66 days from the same period last year. The PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories is 9.05 days, down 0.7 days from the previous week and up 1.72 days from the same period last year. Recently, Yizheng Chemical Fiber has increased to full capacity, Hailun Petrochemical has restarted, and Baihong has been under maintenance. Downstream polyester demand has recovered somewhat. With the favorable supply and demand outlook for PTA and the boost from the crude oil rebound, the main contract price of PTA futures is expected to focus on the 4,000 support level within the day.

Ethylene Glycol The United States announced a 90-day deferral of additional tariffs on some countries that do not take retaliatory actions, which has eased market concerns and led to a rebound in international crude oil prices. This, in turn, has provided some support to the cost of polyester. In terms of supply, the weekly output of domestic ethylene glycol facilities is 396,900 tons, up 0.48% from the previous week. The overall domestic ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate for the week is 66.01%, up 0.31% from the previous week. On the demand side, the polyester operating rate is currently 91.76%. The weekly output of the polyester industry is 1,546,100 tons, up 7,600 tons from the previous week, with a week-on-week increase of 0.49%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of the polyester industry is 91.52%, up 0.45% from the previous week. As of April 7, the total port inventory of MEG in the East China main port area is 700,400 tons, up 2,600 tons from the previous Thursday. As of April 9, 2025, the estimated arrival volume is 162,600 tons, down 8,100 tons from the previous week. Recently, the estimated arrival volume of ethylene glycol is expected to increase, which may put upward pressure on port inventories. However, with the rebound of crude oil, the ethylene glycol futures price may be boosted and show an oversold rebound within the day, with support around 4,350.

Short Fiber The United States announced a 90-day deferral of additional tariffs on some countries that do not take retaliatory actions, which has eased market concerns and led to a rebound in international crude oil prices. This, in turn, has provided some support to the cost of polyester. Currently, the short fiber sales rate is 90.56%, down 1.17% from the previous period. In terms of supply, the weekly output of polyester short fiber is 158,100 tons, down 1,900 tons from the previous week, with a decrease of 1.19%. The average capacity utilization rate is 84.50%, down 0.90% from the previous week. Within the week, the output of Yihua, Jiangnan High Fiber, and Huaxi Village has all increased. On the demand side, the average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry within the week is 82.12%, unchanged from the previous week. In terms of inventory, as of April 4, the rights inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China is 18.45 days, up 0.52 days from the previous period. Polyester short fiber major factories plan to reduce production by 10%, with a reduction period of one month. Attention should be paid to downstream restocking and cost-end conditions, as the short fiber processing fee may be supported by the reduction. The short fiber main contract closed slightly lower overnight and is expected to follow the rebound of crude oil within the day.

The United States announced a 90-day deferral of additional tariffs on some countries that do not take retaliatory actions, which has eased market concerns and led to a rebound in international crude oil prices. This, in turn, has provided some support to the cost of polyester. In terms of supply, the weekly output of domestic polyester bottle chips is 313,500 tons, up 8,400 tons from the previous week, with an increase of 2.75%. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic polyester bottle chips is 73.79%, up 1.97 percentage points from the previous week. In terms of exports, in February 2025, China's polyester bottle chip exports were 487,600 tons, up 66,000 tons from the previous month, or 15.66%. Recently, a major line of a factory in East China with a capacity of 500,000 tons has restarted, and a factory in Northeast China with a capacity of 700,000 tons has also restarted, which is expected to lead to an increase in bottle chip supply. Terminal processing industries are gradually resuming operations, and factory inventory pressure is gradually increasing. Currently, the production profit is -236.34. The profit loss limits the downside of bottle chips, and with the short-term boost from crude oil, it is expected to follow the rebound of crude oil within the day.

(Source: NOACY Futures)