NOACY Futures: Weakening Cost Support, Short-term PX Adjustment

February 13, 2025 08:53

Last night, the price of PX fell. Currently, the PXN spread is around $220 per ton. In terms of supply, the weekly PX production was 756,800 tons, stable compared to last week. The domestic PX weekly average capacity utilization rate was 90.24%, stable compared to last week. The recovery of Fujian United and Zhenhai Refining facilities, along with a slight reduction in load at Sinopec, has stabilized the situation. On the demand side, the current PTA operating rate is 82.74%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,415,000 tons, an increase of 14,300 tons compared to last week (0124-0130). The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 81.29%, up by 0.86 percentage points compared to last week (0124-0130). The PX-naphtha spread is running at a low level. After the holiday, PX supply has been stable. Recently, some PX and PTA facilities have maintenance plans. Downstream polyester demand has recovered somewhat. With the start of the gasoline blending season, the supply and demand outlook for polyester raw materials is expected to improve. However, the easing of geopolitical tensions has led to a decline in oil prices, weakening cost support. In the short term, PX is expected to adjust and consolidate.

Last night, PTA prices also fell. The current PTA processing margin is around 272 yuan per ton. In terms of supply, the current PTA operating rate is 82.74%, with a weekly PTA production of 1,415,000 tons, an increase of 14,300 tons compared to last week (0124-0130). The weekly average capacity utilization rate for PTA was 81.29%, up by 0.86 percentage points compared to last week (0124-0130). During the Spring Festival, Yisheng New Materials restarted, while other facilities remained stable. On the demand side, the current polyester operating rate is 86.57%. The weekly output of the polyester industry was 1,382,600 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons compared to last week, with a weekly growth of 1.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 82.59%, up by 0.34 percentage points compared to last week. Recently, some PTA facilities have maintenance plans. Downstream polyester demand has recovered somewhat. With the start of the gasoline blending season, the supply and demand outlook for polyester raw materials is expected to improve. However, cost support has weakened. Attention should be paid to the support range of 4,600-4,800 for the PTA main contract and the resistance range of 5,300-5,500.

Last night, ethylene glycol prices fluctuated weakly. In terms of supply, the weekly output of ethylene glycol facilities was 409,500 tons, up by 3.98% compared to last week. The domestic ethylene glycol total capacity utilization rate this week was 68.11%, up by 2.6% compared to last week. Recently, a 150,000-ton facility in Xinjiang is restarting, while multiple facilities have maintenance plans. On the demand side, the current polyester operating rate is 86.57%. The weekly output of the polyester industry was 1,382,600 tons, an increase of 24,900 tons compared to last week, with a weekly growth of 1.83%. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of China's polyester industry was 82.59%, up by 0.34 percentage points compared to last week. In terms of inventory, as of February 10, the total inventory of MEG ports in East China was 657,400 tons, an increase of 39,700 tons compared to the previous week. As of February 12, 2025, the estimated total arrival volume of domestic ethylene glycol in East China was 227,800 tons. With ample recent arrivals and multiple domestic facilities planning maintenance, the overall supply is expected to decrease. Downstream demand has recovered after the holiday, and port inventory pressure is expected to ease. The supply and demand outlook for ethylene glycol is favorable, but with weakening cost support, upward momentum is limited.

Last night, short fiber prices fluctuated weakly. The current short fiber sales rate is 56.16%, down by 4.09% compared to the previous trading day. In terms of supply, the weekly output of polyester short fiber was 134,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons compared to last week, with a growth rate of 1.90%. The average capacity utilization rate was 69.86%, up by 1.35% compared to last week. Recently, facilities such as Ningbo DaFa and Shida Chemical have restarted. On the demand side, the average sales rate of polyester short fiber factories was 18.09%, down by 21.43% compared to the previous period. The average operating rate of the pure polyester yarn industry was 20.19%, unchanged compared to the previous period. In terms of inventory, as of February 6, the inventory of polyester short fiber factories in China was 14.04 days, up by 6.1 days compared to the previous period. The average raw material inventory for pure polyester yarn was 10.25 days, unchanged compared to the previous period. With multiple polyester facilities restarting, short fiber supply is expected to increase. Downstream terminal load is gradually recovering, and downstream raw material inventory is declining, with some restocking expectations. Short fiber prices are expected to fluctuate upward.